(Bloomberg) – The Federal Reserve should start reducing its asset purchases as soon as possible and gradually, said Dallas Fed Chairman Robert Kaplan, arguing that the massive bond purchase resulted in a catch excessive risk.
“I would support the adjustment of these purchases soon, but once we start the adjustment process, I would probably prefer it to be more gradual,” Kaplan said in an interview this week with Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway on Bloomberg’s “Odd Lots”. Podcast.
The Fed is expected to cut monthly treasury purchases by $ 10 billion and mortgage-backed securities purchases by $ 5 billion, ending its bond-buying program in eight months, Kaplan said while refusing to specify a start date for the process. Such a pace would also mean that purchases of both assets would decline in parallel, with the Fed currently buying $ 80 billion per month in Treasuries and $ 40 billion in MBS. Some officials have argued for reducing mortgage purchases faster or first, given soaring house prices.
Kaplan spoke on Wednesday, two days before Friday’s report showing that US employers created 943,000 more jobs than expected in July, the most in nearly a year. The unemployment rate fell by half a percentage point to 5.4%, marking a big step towards the Fed’s goal of further “substantial” labor market progress that will fuel discussions on the reduction.
Fed officials began to debate when and how they should cut asset purchases at their July meeting. The central bank began buying bonds at the start of the pandemic last year in an attempt to inject liquidity into the market and support an economy rocked by widespread lockdowns.
Kaplan, who was one of the first officials to call at the start of the phase-down talks, said while not everyone on the Federal Open Market Committee agreed on the timing and pace , he was happy that the topic was discussed.
“We obviously have disagreements, but I think it’s healthy,” Kaplan said in the interview, which will be posted on podcast platforms Monday. “I’m much more comfortable where we are now than where we were a few months ago.”
Starting the reduction process quickly could also help ease some of the pressure on rising interest rates going forward, Kaplan said.
“Adjusting these purchases earlier might actually allow us to be more patient on the federal funds rate going forward,” Kaplan said.
Fed officials are forecasting two interest rate hikes in 2023, according to the median estimate, although seven of 18 FOMC participants see one as early as next year. Kaplan is not a voter on the FOMC setting policy this year.
The bond buying program may lead to greater risk-taking in markets and in housing, Kaplan says. He said the stimulus tool is apt to solve demand problems, but not to deal with supply problems encountered in the economy, both in the availability of certain goods and in the labor market.
“This imbalance between supply and demand for labor is going to be more persistent than people might expect,” Kaplan said.
While the delta variant, which is leading to a resurgence of coronavirus cases in the country, may not hurt growth, it could mean a slower economic recovery and continued difficulty in matching workers to employers, a- he declared.
Companies in certain sectors are struggling to hire workers in a context of economic reopening and increasing demand. But more than 3 million Americans remain out of the workforce compared to before the pandemic, citing concerns about the virus, early retirement and caregiving responsibilities as reasons not to return to work.
Kaplan forecasts economic growth of 6.5% this year and 2.5% to 3% next year. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5% by the end of the year. Labor Department figures on Friday showed the unemployment rate fell last month to 5.4%.
The personal consumption expenditure inflation indicator could end the year at 3.8%, a figure Kaplan called “very high.” The Fed’s preferred price measure hit 4% in June, a 13-year high.
(Add more details from the interview starting in the third paragraph.)
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