BISMARCK – A new economic outlook report predicts a slowing recovery for North Dakota as the state emerges from a pandemic pit.
Report compiled by Jeremy Jackson, professor of economics at North Dakota State University, predicts a decline in state gross product, labor force participation and total wages over the coming months . However, Jackson’s model, which relies on historical data, also predicts a “promising” increase in state tax revenues.
North Dakota state gross product rose 1.9% in the first fiscal quarter of 2021 after rising 1.3% in the last quarter of 2020, but Jackson’s forecast shows that the economic output of the ‘State drops below the lowest point of the COVID-19 pandemic over the next six months.
Jeremy Jackson is a professor in the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics at North Dakota State University. (NDSU photo)
A decrease in labor market participation would exacerbate an already severe labor shortage that is forcing companies to scramble to find employees. Job Service North Dakota said it had 18,078 jobs posted on its website as of Wednesday, Aug. 4, with thousands of vacancies in healthcare, transportation, sales and food preparation.
Jackson told Forum News Service last week that the market has a mechanism to resolve the problem naturally in the long term, either by raising wages or reducing demand for labor, but labor shortages. -Works plagued North Dakota employers long before the pandemic.
The report notes that North Dakota’s economy is heavily tied to oil, so the total wages and taxes collected by the state over the next year depends on the volatile price of the product.
The projections for Fargo and Grand Forks are more positive than the state as a whole.
The labor pool in Fargo and Grand Forks is expected to increase in the last two quarters of the year, although house prices are expected to rise significantly. Bismarck’s outlook is more neutral, with the labor pool and house prices expected to remain stable.